Now that I am visiting Hong Kong, many friends have asked me about the US elections. They want to know if Donald Trump will win or if Joe Biden will defeat him again. Friends think my return to the US in 2021 gives me a special insight into US politics. I tell them I haven't the foggiest. To have a special insight means to have an especially clear and deep understanding of a complicated situation. If you haven't the foggiest, it means you don't have any knowledge about something.
The election is in November 2024. That's a year-and-a-half away. Even the best political pundits cannot predict the outcome of an election that's so far away. A political pundit is a political expert who gives opinions and information to the public, usually on TV. The latest poll by NBC, a US television company, shows a very divided country. Nearly 70 percent of Republican voters say they will support Trump in a primary election despite his recent criminal arrest and investigations into his past conduct. Only about 30 percent of Republican primary voters said they would support Trump's Republican rival Ron DeSantis, Florida's governor.
The Democratic Party won't have a primary election because Biden, as the president, has decided to run again. Almost 90 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Biden but 70 percent of all Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, feel he should not run again. About 60 percent of all Americans, including a third of Republicans, don't want Trump to run again. Americans feel Biden and Trump are too old. I think so too and probably won’t vote next year.
現在我停留香港，許多朋友問我美國選舉的事。他們想知道，唐納德‧特朗普會否勝出，抑或祖‧拜登又再擊敗他？朋友們認為，我2021年回到美國，會令我對美國政治有一些特別的洞見（special insight）。我跟他們說 I haven’t the foggiest。To have a special insight是指對於複雜的情況有個特別清晰和深刻的見解與洞察力。若你 haven’t the foggiest，意即你對某事情一無所知、茫無頭緒。
美國大選將於2024年11月舉行，距今尚有一年半的時間。就是最優秀的政治權威（political pundits）也不能預測這麼久以後的選舉結果。A political pundit就是政治專家，會向大眾發表個人意見與政治資訊，通常是電視的名嘴。美國國家廣播公司NBC ，最近做了一次民意調查，反映美國意見分歧甚大。接近七成的共和黨選民說，儘管特朗普最近遭到刑事拘捕及面臨對其過往行為的調查，他們仍會在初選中支持他。只有約三成的共和黨初選選民說他們會支持特朗普的共和黨對手，佛羅里達州州長朗‧德桑蒂斯。