又中又英——A week is a long time in politics

　　Before the coronavirus pandemic erupted in the US, I believed US President Donald Trump was a shoo-in for re-election in November. The economy was good, the jobless rate was low, and he was popular among Republicans. His rival, former vice-president Joe Biden, does not have the same charisma as his former boss Barack Obama. I believed it was a long shot for Biden to win. But the tide has turned. Trump is no longer a shoo-in for re-election. Opinion polls show his popularity has dropped because of his handling of the pandemic and economy. The polls show Biden's popularity has risen. It is no longer a long shot for him to win.
　　If you are a shoo-in, it means you are certain to win, such as an election or competition. The word "charisma" is used to describe people with a strong personality that makes others admire them. If you have a "long shot" it means you only have a very small chance of succeeding in something that you do. The expression "the tide has turned" used this way means a complete reversal of a situation. For example, if you are winning in a tennis match but your opponent suddenly starts to score more points, you can say the tide has turned.
　　The US election is still three months away. There is a popular saying that a week is a long time in politics. This means a lot can change in a very short time in politics. The tide can turn again if the coronavirus pandemic eases in the US and a vaccine is approved by November, which helps the economy to recover. If that happens, Trump will become a shoo-in again for re-election. But I think it's a long shot that a successful vaccine can be approved by US health officials before the elections. Many experts believe a vaccine will be available by the end of 2020 or early next year. Trump wants a vaccine before the election. I hope a safe vaccine can be found as soon as possible.
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　　美国爆发全球大流行的新冠肺炎疫情之前，我认为美国总统唐纳德‧特朗普要在十一月大选中竞选连任，是十拿九稳的事（shoo-in）。当时的经济不错，失业率低，他在共和党人中也相当受欢迎。他的对手，前副总统祖‧拜登，并没有他前老板巴拉克‧奥巴马般的个人魅力（charisma）。拜登要赢，我相信是个很难成功的尝试（long shot）。然而，形势逆转（the tide has turned），特朗普竞选连任不再是稳操胜券（shoo-in），民调显示，他的支持度已经下跌，是因着他在全球大流行疫情以及经济方面的处理不善。各项民调亦显示，拜登的支持度有所上升。他要赢得大选，再并非难以成功的尝试（long shot）。
　　若你是a shoo-in，意即你是稳操胜券者，例如在一个选举又或比赛之中。Charisma是用来形容人们有非凡的个人魅力，令他人为之欣赏。若你have a“long shot”，意即在你想做的某事上，成功的机会很渺茫。习语“the tide has turned”在这里是指局势有了一百八十度的转变。譬如，若你在一场网球比赛中占尽上风，正要赢了，但你的对手却突然开始得更多的分，你便可以说the tide has turned。
　　美国总统大选还有三个月就要举行了。有一个很流行的说法，就是a week is a long time in politics，意思即是政治一星期都嫌长，很多事情可以在短时间内改变。要是美国的新冠肺炎疫情放缓，在十一月能批出疫苗，那就能协助经济复苏，局势亦会再一次逆转（the tide can turn）。若这能发生，特朗普连任又会是十拿九稳的事（shoo-in）了。
　　然而，要在大选之前成功研发疫苗，获得美国衞生官员批准量产，是很难成功的尝试（long shot）。许多专家都相信，疫苗可在二○二○年年底或明年初左右面世。特朗普则希望在大选前有疫苗。我希望安全的疫苗可以尽早研发成功。[email protected] 中译：七刻
Michael Chugani 褚简宁