又中又英 | Fog of war | 褚简宁

  Countries at war must often deal with confusion and uncertainty during military operations. Military leaders sometimes need to make decisions based on incomplete or misleading information, causing miscalculations. These problems are called the fog of war. Fog is a weather condition in which tiny drops of water form a low cloud which makes it difficult to see. The fog of war can sometimes make it difficult for military leaders to know or see if their missiles or bombs have destroyed intended enemy targets.

  When the US and Israel jointly attacked Iran last February, their strikes killed many top Iranian leaders and destroyed much of Iran’s weapons on the first day of the war. But a US missile mistakenly struck an elementary school for girls, killing about 170 people, mostly schoolchildren. It was the fog of war. There is currently a ceasefire between the US and Iran while the two sides negotiate a peace agreement. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed the US destroyed almost all of Iran's weapons. But Western media reports said Iran still has about 70 percent of its missiles.

  It is unclear how much of Iran's weapons US strikes have really destroyed because of an Iranian veil of secrecy. A veil is a thin piece of cloth that some women, particularly Muslim women, use to cover their face. A veil of secrecy is an expression that means to hide the truth about something. Iranian reports said its drone attacks on US bases in the Middle East caused much damage. But the US has denied this. It can be the fog of war or a veil of secrecy because the public doesn't know which side is telling the truth.

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  作战中的国家于军事行动期间,不得不面对困惑与不确定性。军事领袖有时需要根据不完整又或误导的情报去做决定,引致误算。这些问题被称为the fog of war。Fog是雾,一种天然现象,就是悬浮在空气中的一层水汽凝结物,令人难以看清前物。战争迷雾(fog of war)有时可以令军事领袖难以知悉或看到,他们的导弹或炸弹可有真正摧毁了预期的敌方目标。

  当美国和以色列于二月联合攻击伊朗时,在作战的首天他们的侵袭便已杀死了不少伊朗高级官员,又摧毁了伊朗的许多武器。然而,一枚美国导弹亦误中一所女子小学,造成170人丧生,当中大部分为学童。那就是战争迷雾(fog of war)。现在,美国与伊朗已停火,待双方洽谈和平协议。总统特朗普一再声称,美国已摧毁伊朗接近全数的武器,但西方媒体却报道指,伊朗还有七成的导弹未被摧毁。

  因着伊朗神秘的面纱(veil of secrecy),实在不能确定美国的袭击到底摧毁了伊朗多少武器。Veil是一些女士,特别是伊斯兰女人,用来蒙面的面纱。A veil of secrecy是个习语,用来指隐藏某事的真相。伊朗报告指,他们的无人机攻击了美国在中东的基地,造成大规模的破坏。美国却否认此说。这可能是战争迷雾(fog of war)又或秘密掩护(veil of secrecy),因为公众无从知晓哪一方说的是真话。    

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Michael Chugani褚简宁
中译:七刻

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