又中又英 | Cry uncle | 褚简宁

　　Wars almost always end when one side cries uncle. The side that cries uncle believes it is cooked and must cry uncle. To cry uncle or to say uncle is an American slang that means to surrender or admit defeat. The word "cooked" used this way means to be in serious trouble. President Donald Trump believes the intense bombing of Iran by the US and Israel will eventually force Iranian leaders to cry uncle when they conclude they are cooked. But there is no sign for now that Iran will throw in the towel.

　　To throw in the towel means to stop trying to do something when you realize you cannot succeed. The expression originated from boxing when a boxer throws a towel into the boxing ring to admit defeat. Most experts agree it is too early to say when or how the US-Iran war will end. Some wars end when one side tries to find an off-ramp. Both sides also try to find an off-ramp in some cases. A ramp is a slope that joins different levels.

　　An off-ramp or exit ramp is the short slope that curves away from a highway for drivers to exit the highway. An off-ramp also means a way to leave a difficult situation, such as a war, to avoid failure. The expression "exit strategy" has a similar meaning. Military experts agree it is impossible for Iran to militarily defeat the US and Israel, but it can cause much instability by bombing US allies in the region. They also agree the Middle East and Iran will not be the same as before when the war ends.

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　　当战事的其中一方「喊救命」（cries uncle），这场仗就往往接近要完了。求饶（cries uncle）的那一方，认为自己完蛋（cooked）了，必须认输（cry uncle）。To cry uncle或to say uncle是美式俚语，意指投降或认输。Cooked在这里是指遇到大麻烦了。总统唐纳德．特朗普认为，美国与以色列对伊朗的猛烈轰炸，可逼使伊朗领袖们判定自己要完蛋（cooked）了，最终投降认输（cry uncle）。然而，现在还没有迹象显示伊朗会throw in the towel。

　　To throw in the towel是指当你认知到自己不能成功时，就要放弃、举白旗。这个习语源自拳击手向擂台扔毛巾，承认落败。大部分专家都认同，美伊战争究竟何时或会怎样结束，现时言之尚早。一些战事会在一方尝试寻找退路（off-ramp）时结束。在一些案例中，双方也在尝试找出口坡道（off-ramp）。A ramp是一个连接不同层面的坡道。

　　An off-ramp或exit ramp就是从高速公路上支出的短斜坡车道，让驾驶者可以驶离高速公路。An off-ramp也解作得以脱离某艰难环境如战争的一个出口，以避免失败告终。习语「exit strategy」即退场策略，亦有类近的意思。军事专家都认同，伊朗在军事上要打败美国和以色列是不可能的，但它仍能透过轰炸邻近地区的美国盟友，构成不少的动荡。他们也同意，当战事结束的时候，中东和伊朗已人事全非，不会跟从前一样。

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Michael Chugani褚简宁
中译：七刻